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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."