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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.